Saudi Arabia’s military aggression against Yemen is, in fact, an attack on a popular revolution, which Persian Gulf Arab states and their Western allies have been trying to nip in the bud for a long time.
Using their propaganda machine, Saudis have been trying since the very beginning to make the world public opinion believe that what is going on in Yemen is not a popular revolution, but is simply an unrest resulting from the Islamic Republic of Iran's interventionist efforts. They also claimed that the revolution in Yemen is not broad-based and only limited to Houthi Shias in the country. However, at last, realities on the ground in Yemen have overcome media and propaganda ploys of the Saudi front. At present, the intensity of Yemeni people’s revolution has reached such a high level that the city of Aden, which is the country’s second biggest city and the main base of the opponents of the revolution and supporters of Yemen’s fugitive president, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, has fallen to revolutionary forces.
Before the fall of Aden and its conquest by Houthi movement’s Ansarullah revolutionaries and their revolutionary committees, some analysts had currently predicted that Saudi Arabia will not tolerate this victory for Shia Houthis and will choose for military intervention in Yemen. This group of analysts believed that Houthis should stop behind the walls of Aden and suffice to what they have achieved thus far. In fact, they meant that Houthis should resign to a profitable political compromise after gaining a good share of the political power.
In reality, however, this line of thinking is not compatible with the revolutionary spirit of Yemeni people. A revolution will no more be a revolution if it could be managed and stripped of its sweeping nature and dynamism. On the other hand, if they could manage the Yemeni people’s movement, they could have claimed that it had not been a true revolution and a popular movement in Yemen. At any rate, Saudi Arabia, along with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Qatar and, surprisingly, Sudan, has attacked the revolution of the Yemeni people. There are few points that should be taken into account in this regard.
1. The measure taken by Riyadh for attacking the revolution of the Yemeni people can only stem from Saudi Arabia’s frustration as a result of Riyadh’s frequent defeats, not only in the political process in Yemen, but in other regional developments as well.
2. It seems that the attack is accompanied with no long-term strategic plan and Saudi Arabia’s assault on Aden is only aimed at drawing a line to mark the Houthis’ sphere of influence. This is true because Riyadh is well aware that it will never be able to totally eradicate or weaken Ansarullah and its popular support base.
3. Although Riyadh has been trying to get a number of countries involved in its attack in order to face the popular revolution in this Arab country with a coalition of Arab states, there is no doubt that Saudi Arabia will be the main party whose interests will suffer the consequences of the ongoing aggression against Yemen.
4. The Saudi and Western front is trying to limit the movement of Ansarullah fighters to northern parts of Yemen and keep them away from the strategic strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Do to this; they may advance as far as the disintegration of Yemen or occupation of some southern parts of the country.
5. With Saudi Arabia’s military invasion of Yemen in full swing, all previous agreements that Saudi Arabia had concluded with Yemen will be rendered null and void. Also, as a result of the aggression, anti-Saudi sentiments, which existed in Yemen in the past, will hit their acme. As a result, those political groups, which are currently against Ansarullah, will unite with this group and will become sensitive about all territorial disputes between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. In this way, all past disputes, especially over such strategically important regions as al-Asir, Najran and Jizan, will be resumed. The people of Yemen consider these regions as part and parcel of their country and look upon Saudi Arabia as an occupying force.
6. At present, Houthis have enough excuse to launch any kind of military and retaliatory operations, both deep within Saudi territory, and around Bab-el-Mandeb, in the Red Sea and even in the proximity of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. In doing so, the first and foremost goal for Houthis will be oil wells, oil tankers and parent industries.
7. Neither Saudis are powerful enough to eradicate Houthis and rout the revolution of the Yemeni people, nor are Houthis able to destroy Saudi Arabia. Houthis, however, have lived for many long years under such aerial strikes. It was just two years ago, when the country’s former dictator, Ali Abdullah Saleh, bombarded Houthis’ positions in northern mountains of Yemen at the behest of and through coordination with Saudi Arabia. The attacks, however, only made Houthis more powerful. There is no doubt that Saudis, who live in a metaphorical ivory tower, will be much more vulnerable than Houthis and other people in Yemen.
8. Being aware of all the above facts, Saudis know that they are not capable of handing a war of attrition in Yemen. Therefore, it is possible for them to look for a mediator in order to find a political solution for Yemen. In this case, as the saying goes, you may start a war, but you will not be necessarily the party that ends it. So, one must wait and see whether Houthis will be able to close the new chapter that has been mistakenly, or on purpose, opened by Saudis or not.
Key Words: Yemen Revolution, Houthis, Persian Gulf Arab States, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, Islamic Republic of Iran, Ansarullah, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Qatar, Sudan, Bab-el-Mandeb, Red Sea, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Noroozpoor