Publishe Date: 3:52 PM - 1/14/2013 | Print

2013, the year of peace or war against Iran

Politics - Abdel-bari Atwan

As the last year, 2012 was called the year of Egypt, the new Christian year would possibly be the year of Iran and its allies in the Middle East. Whether peace with Iran would be made or war against that country would be launched, the Arabs would be victimized. In the condition of peace, the Arabs would be the booty taken by Iran and in the condition of war they would turn into the instruments of war condemned to be trampled down by the belligerent parties.
On the issue of Iran two viewpoints have been suggested. First, the operating government of the United States would try to control Iran, so it would officially recognize the regional role of Iran as a nuclear country since the American officials do not tend to be engagedwith a third war in the Middle East, particularly as they are still suffering from the impacts of earlier war in Afghanistan and Iraq.
On the other hand, any attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities would not end the crisis and simply would postpone the nuclear activities of the Islamic Republic for two years. On the condition of war against Iran,some or actually most Arabian countries would back Iran, although due to the support given to the Syrian regime by Tehran, a number of them have frozen relations with the Islamic Republic.
According to the second viewpoint the decision for launching the war has already been made and perhaps the upcoming spring would be its zero point as the Prime Minister of the Israeli regime Benjamin Netanyahu has propagated the war against Iran as his election gimmick to win the support of the right-hand Zionists. Before the recent presidential election in the United States, Netanyahu took preliminary steps for attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities but several high-ranking American and European officials sounded a note of warning that Israel should not launch such an attack single-handedly.
In another development, the Iranian officials stated a few days ago that they are ready to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the condition that Israel stops threatening Iran. During recent years, the Iranian officials have shown that they are masters of time killing and are able to make proposals which confuse their enemies. Meanwhile, according to unconfirmed reports secret negotiations between Tehran and Washington on the nuclear dispute are underway.
The Israelis are coping with unprecedented concerns over the possible war with Iran: on one hand, they are worried that Iran would be able to stand the first waves of attacks and then target Israel and the American bases in the region.On the other they are afraid of chemical weapons kept in Syria, which can be used against them whether by the Syrian army or Hezbollah of Lebanon.
The crushing economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States and its allies have put a negative impact on the Iranian economy. The level of the Islamic Republic'soil exports has been reduced to half and the value of the Iranian currency has dropped by 80%. However, history proves that no economic punishment and sanction has led to the collapse of a regime.
In the meantime, some have placed their hope on an Iranian model of the Arabian Spring to be risen before the forthcoming Iranian presidential election in June, but it's unlikely that the Zionist regime of Israel wait until that time, because it claims that Tehran would access to nuclear weapon before that.
The key question for us is what would be the role of the Arabian countries. Finding the answer for such question will be painful because the Saudi Arabia, the largest Arabian country in the Persian Gulf is led by senile leaders and is in the state of restlessness,moreover the union of the Arabian countries of the Persian Gulf is fragile.
Taking a look at the neighbors of the Arabian Persian Gulf countries, one realizes that Jordan is coping with bankruptcy, and Egypt is engaged with a domestic crisis. Yemen is disintegrated and Syria is at the height of a civil war. The Arabian nations have been ignored and turned into the dependents to the world powers in international crises. Their assets are being plundered by the local corrupt figures or the world powers and their solidarity has been hit by tribal disputes.
 

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