Accordint to KhabarOnline, According to Axios, citing three informed Israeli and American sources, Israeli officials last weekend conveyed concerns to the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump that a recent missile exercise by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) might go beyond routine drills and be interpreted as preparations for military action.
The report notes that Israeli sources stress the available intelligence largely indicates internal troop and equipment movements within Iran. However, the experience of Hamas’s surprise attack on October 7, 2023 has significantly lowered the Israeli military’s tolerance for risk. One source said similar concerns were raised about six weeks ago after Iranian missile movements were detected, but no escalation followed.
An Israeli source told Axios: “The likelihood of an Iranian attack is assessed at under 50 percent, but no one is willing to take the risk and simply assume this is just an exercise.”
By contrast, a U.S. official said American intelligence assessments currently see no indication of an imminent Iranian attack.
Behind-the-Scenes Military Coordination
According to knowledgeable sources, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, spoke by phone on Saturday with Adm. Brad Cooper, Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), to share Israel’s concerns regarding the IRGC’s recent missile drills. Zamir reportedly warned that recent Iranian missile movements and other operational steps could serve as cover for a surprise strike, and called for closer U.S.–Israeli coordination on defensive preparedness.
Cooper traveled to Tel Aviv on Sunday and held meetings with Zamir and senior Israeli military officials to review the situation. The Israeli military declined to comment, and CENTCOM did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Sources say the greatest risk is the outbreak of a war between Israel and Iran due to a miscalculation—where each side believes the other intends to attack and moves to strike preemptively.
What to Watch
Axios reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet President Trump in Miami on December 29. Israeli sources say Netanyahu plans to discuss Iran’s efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile capabilities, as well as potential Israeli options in 2026—an issue previously reported by NBC News.
The report adds that Israeli intelligence has detected early signs of renewed efforts by Iran to strengthen its missile arsenal. According to these sources, Iran ended the 12-day war in June with roughly 1,500 missiles remaining, down from about 3,000 before the conflict, and retained around 200 launchers out of an original 400.
Israeli sources say Iran has begun steps to rebuild these capabilities but has not yet returned to prewar levels. Based on assessments by Israeli military intelligence and the Mossad, the pace of reconstruction is not currently high enough to warrant immediate military action in the next two to three months, though they warn the issue could become more urgent later in the year.