This news came as a surprise to many, especially considering the severe threats from Trump and repeated warnings about military options. Axios reported that Trump’s advisors convinced him to refrain from attacking.
The New York Times claimed that Oman had asked Trump to discard the military option, while other sources reported that Netanyahu also played a role in this decision. Trump himself admitted that he was persuaded to step back from military action. But what factors led the U.S. to retreat at a time when a military operation seemed possible?
1. Failure of the Internal Unrest Plan
According to evidence, the U.S. plan to weaken Iran included five stages: disrupting the currency market, turning protests into riots, activating small terror cells, intensifying the activities of terrorist groups, and finally, military intervention.
However, as Iranian security sources have indicated, the U.S. plan was halted in the third stage. The public’s presence on the streets and the swift response of Iran's security forces quelled the unrest and made it impossible to proceed with the next stages.
This failure inside Iran is considered the primary reason behind the news of the U.S. retreat; Washington realized that the conditions for a military operation were not in place.
2. The Deceptive Strategy of the U.S. and Israel
Another analysis focuses on the tactical nature of the news: the U.S. and Israel might have used the announcement of abandoning the attack to deceive Iran, hoping to lower its defensive preparedness. However, the experience of the 12-day war has shown that Iran does not interpret such news as a sign of reduced readiness.
Iranian military officials have warned that any action against the country will be met with a serious response, and recent news has not been able to lower Iran’s preparedness.
The Iranian Defense Minister stated: "To counter threats, we will have surprises, and the attackers will endure great pain from these surprises."
3. Fear of Repeating the 12-Day War
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran is an experience now influencing the analysis of American and Israeli politicians and commanders. According to CNN, Iran’s success in intercepting missiles and the balance of regional power led Netanyahu and Trump’s advisors to reconsider the military option.
Past experience shows that any military attack on Iran could quickly turn into a short but intense war with unpredictable consequences for the attacker.
4. Neutralizing Israeli Internal Networks
After the recent unrest in Iran, Iran's security forces delivered serious blows to terrorist networks linked to Israel.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence organization and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence have announced the arrest of key operatives in these networks.
The weakening of the enemy’s intelligence and operational infrastructure is another reason for the U.S. retreat; without these networks, the success of a military operation would be limited and high-risk.
5. The Role of Mediators and Pressure from Regional Countries
The news of the U.S. retreat is also linked to the mediation efforts of Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt. Iran had explicitly stated that U.S. bases in the region would be targeted, and this threat pushed regional countries to intervene.
These countries’ fear of Iran’s retaliation against their own bases led to increased diplomatic pressure to avoid military action, culminating in the wave of news about the U.S. withdrawal.
Analyzing these five factors shows that the recent news is not just a media narrative; rather, it reflects the real failure of U.S. tactics in inciting internal unrest, Iran’s high preparedness, fear of military consequences, blows to enemy operational networks, and diplomatic pressure from regional countries.
The conclusion is that the U.S. retreat is not just a temporary pause; it is the reflection of a multilayered security and diplomatic equation that Iran has shaped through a combination of deterrence, internal crisis management, and regional diplomacy.
This experience shows both Washington and the regional countries that actions taken without understanding Iran’s real capacities can lead to unforeseen costs .