According to KhabarOnlione, After an intense surge of activity over the past few days, the relative calm this morning is meaningful. Is this the calm before the storm, or a delay in plans? We’ll have to wait and see. As of this morning, the confirmed facts are:
- 31 aerial refueling aircraft (tankers) in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area
- 57 additional tankers positioned along the likely bomber routes, similar to the 12-day “Midnight Hammer” war, via the Atlantic and the Mediterranean
- 19 more tankers in the UK and Germany that can be redeployed to increase capacity if needed
- An unspecified number of other tankers (such as KC-130J, MC-130, HC-130) used to support helicopters and combat search and rescue (CSAR) operations
- 30 F-35A Lightning II fighters in Jordan (18 from RAF Lakenheath, 12 from Vermont)
- 12 A-10C Thunderbolt II ground-attack aircraft in Jordan (from Moody AFB)
- 36 F-15E Strike Eagle fighters in Jordan (24 from Lakenheath, 12 from Seymour Johnson)
- 6 EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft in Jordan, plus 10–12 more aboard two aircraft carriers (CVNs)
- Other carrier air wing assets: 10–12 F-35C, 70–84 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, and 8–10 E-2D Advanced Hawkeye early-warning aircraft
- 12 F-22A Raptor fighters at RAF Lakenheath, reportedly set to move to the front lines tomorrow
- 48 F-16C/CJ Fighting Falcons, likely spread across 2–3 bases in the Middle East (including 24 from Aviano, 12 from McEntire, and 12 from Spangdahlem)
- 6 E-3G Sentry airborne early-warning aircraft, all in Saudi Arabia
- 5 E-11A BACN aircraft (Battlefield Airborne Communications Node, explained in a previous post), also in Saudi Arabia
- At least 3 MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance drones
- A number of P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft monitoring the waterways around Iran
- 1 RC-135V Rivet Joint signals-intelligence aircraft
- Reports of U-2S Dragon Lady reconnaissance flights into the region several times this week from another base
- 2 RQ-4B Global Hawk reconnaissance drones in the Mediterranean, which could be redirected toward Iran if needed
Taken together, this force mix suggests we are very close to the start of a large-scale, sustained air combat operation that could last several weeks. In the opening strikes, the primary targets would likely include air defenses, ballistic missile launchers, and key individuals.
It’s also worth noting that the number of tankers positioned along the U.S.–Atlantic–Mediterranean–Iran axis is significantly higher than during the 12-day Midnight Hammer operation.
This means that if B-2 bombers are used again, it likely won’t be a single, one-off strike. Instead, it could involve a large strike package with multiple bombers, or even a 24-hour mission to keep at least one (or several) bombers over Iran continuously, striking newly identified targets based on fresh, real-time intelligence. (B-52 and B-1 bombers are also available.)
Another point: media reports indicate disagreements between the UK government and the U.S. over the use of RAF Fairford or Diego Garcia (in the Chagos Islands) for operations against Iran.
This is largely a logistical issue—bombers flying from those bases would cover far shorter distances than flying directly from the continental United States.
However, with more than 50 tankers already positioned along bomber routes, it appears the U.S. is prepared to launch strikes from its own territory unless the UK changes its stance. Given Prime Minister Starmer’s emphasis on certain aspects of “international law,” such caution seems understandable.
The main question remains: when?
Realistically, only the White House and a small number of people in the Pentagon can answer that. But the U.S. is almost fully ready, and now that the carrier strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) has entered the Mediterranean and is moving eastward, next week could very well be the moment when things begin.
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