Former Negotiator: Sanctions Unable to Pressure Iran More Than War Time

The remarks were made by Hossein Moussavian, a former Iranian nuclear negotiator in talks with the world powers and former Head of the Foreign Relations Committee of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).

Moussavian is now a research scholar at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. From 1997 to 2005, he was the head of the Foreign Relations Committee of Iran's Supreme National Security Council; from 2003 to 2005, he served as spokesman for Iran in its nuclear negotiations with the European Union. He is author of The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir published by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in June 2012.

In an analysis released in the Center for Strategic and International Studies titled 'An Opportunity for a US/Iran Paradigm Shift', he stressed that the recent 'Islamic Awakening,' labeled by the West as the 'Arab Spring,' has strengthened his view on the US collapse in the region and beyond. He concludes that the latest developments in the region indicate ''the failure of United States dominance . . . [and that] the capitalist system has reached a complete deadlock, [while] the world is at a historical juncture, where the Iranian nation and Muslim nations can play a fundamental role in advancing Islamic values worldwide." He is also confident that "the rise of Islamic identity has become stronger than ever and has weakened the influence of [the] United States and Israel in the region".

The Arab Awakening has brought about seismic changes to the political and social fabric of the region particularly with the downfall of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh. Two common threads bind these events together: First, they were all dictators who received their backing from the United States, Israel, and the West; and second, Islamists through popular vote have become the undisputed victors. Moreover, the Arab Awakening has changed the dynamics within many countries, with new rivalries emerging both regionally and internationally. Indeed, a showdown among regional powerhouses has culminated in a Sunni-Shiite schism in the Muslim world. This has manifested itself as a duel between the Shiite Muslim leadership, with Iran at its helm, and the Salafi/Wahabi strand of Sunni Islam, led by Saudi Arabia, determined to contain Iran's influence and regional ambitions.

The wave of change in the region has not made the Persian Gulf states, ruled by family oligarchs that have resisted change for decades, immune. Bahrain has come to symbolize the vast discrepancy in the reactions to the regional uprisings that have taken place. The West has remained suspiciously silent on Saudi Arabia's March 2011 military invasion of Bahrain, which enforced the brutal government crackdown on pro-democracy protesters that has killed and injured hundreds of civilians. This has once again placed the United States in the uncomfortable position of dealing with a strategic Arab ally that is locked in a showdown with its people.

Nevertheless, three areas in particular where protracted hostility exists between Iran and the United States in the midst of growing instability and terrorism will inevitably result in more divergence rather than convergence in the Middle East, and will prove critical for the region and for Iran-US relations: Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.

Lingering Opportunities in Afghanistan and Iraq

In Afghanistan, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, Iran played a critical role by siding with the United States and providing arms, supplies, and tactical advice to the Northern Alliance. Iran has been and remains one of the most influential countries in Afghanistan and an essential interlocutor, if not partner, in any regional or multilateral diplomatic process designed to limit the conflict there. Through this partnership, the Taliban were ousted, al-Qaeda weakened, and a new government formed in Kabul, a humiliating defeat that extended to the Taliban's ideological, tactical and financial sponsors, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states. The subsequent protracted war in Afghanistan has cost trillions of dollars, and thousands of casualties have weakened the US economy and its position in the region. The future of Afghanistan is marred in uncertainty. Yet, Iran-US cooperation will remain a key factor in restoring peace and stability in
Afghanistan.

On Iraq, long before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Shah of Iran viewed Saddam as his number one regional threat. That trend continued in the aftermath of the revolution, particularly owing to Saddam's imposed war on Iran from 1980-88 that cost both sides over a million casualties. Against this backdrop, the US invasion of Iraq occurred in 2003, toppling the Saddam regime and shaking the balance of power in the region overnight while also reformulating the domestic scene within Iraq. Both Iran and the United States have solidified their relationship with the Shiite government in Iraq, seeking stability and to root out extremist groups responsible for the wave of violence throughout the country that has cost tens of thousands of civilian casualties since 2003.

Once again, invasion of Iraq has cost the United States trillions of dollars and thousands of casualties, which have weakened its economy and regional position. Although Iran has emerged as the biggest winner from the US invasion of Iraq, a sustainable security and stability in Iraq requires both Washington and Tehran's cooperation. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Iran has expanded its influence since the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon in 1982 by creating Hezbollah to lead the resistance against the Israeli occupation. The group has emerged as the most powerful political and military group in Lebanon, led by its charismatic leader, Seyed Hassan Nasrallah. The ultimate victory for Hezbollah came with its successful resistance of Israeli aggression during the 33-day war in 2006.

Therefore, the role of Tehran in any future stabilization of Lebanon will be critical. Thus, it is prudent for the United States and its Arab allies to cooperate within a framework that would include both Iran's and Syria's vested interest and influence in Lebanon.

The Syrian Conflagration

The focal point for regional and international rivalry including but not limited to the United States and Iran has begun in Syria. All sides have entered this battle and are unrelenting in their goal to see the other defeated. The stakes are high, as the victor will have a strong bearing on how the region will be shaped in the future. Both sides assume a 'zero-sum' game, where if they win, the other loses.

But the reality is that Syria could well be the spark in an eruption which will unleash an uncontrollable conflict in the region particularly since leaving the situation in Syria more likely to end in a ''lose-/lose'' outcome for the United States, Iran, the region as a whole, and even many others if events continue on their current course. The regional and international configuration manifesting itself over the Syrian crisis pits an Eastern Alliance (comprising Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Hezbollah, and the Assad government) against a Western Alliance (including the United States, the European Union, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia). The Western Alliance has relied on Salafis the backbone of al-Qaeda and extremist Sunni fighters to conduct attacks on the ground against the Assad government.

These fighters have received funds, weaponry, intelligence, and political support from countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It is no secret that Syria's neighbors are helping to fuel the crisis by seeking to bring about regime change in Syria. Concurrently, the Russians and the Chinese have resisted the Western Alliance by vetoing three UN Security Council Resolutions aimed at allowing intrusive international intervention in Syria. This emboldened posture to resist the Western Alliance is significantly fueled by the diminishing status of the United States and Western countries in the Middle East and global affairs.

Additionally, Iran, a key strategic ally of Syria in the region, has been a major source of strength for the Moscow-Beijing position. With the current turmoil embroiling the Assad government, Iran-Syrian relations have become a vital lifeline for the Assad government to maintain its grip on power. For its part, Iran has maintained its political backing of the Damascus government, even though Tehran has objected to the tactics Assad uses to curb internal opposition.

It is likely that the most extreme Sunni versions of Islam, such as Salafis, will emerge from Syria and use this turbulent time to propagate their extremist tendencies. The sectarian strife in Syria will not be confined to its borders, and will spillover throughout the Levant, Turkey, and Iraq, spreading to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the Persian Gulf states, and ultimately reaching Israel. No one will win if such a scenario transpires.

Currently, Iran and Turkey (along with Turkey's US and Arab allies) are inflaming the regional rivalry over Syria and beyond, while internationally
Russia and the United States exacerbate it. Instead of widening the rift, Turkey and Iran should utilize their influence and leverage to orchestrate regional and international crisis management for the region.

An Opportunity for Cooperation amidst Change

Beyond the region, Iranian leadership perceives the United States is weaker than ever before and on the verge of an economic collapse, accelerated by its economic troubles, successive failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, and deep-running public protests throughout the country (such as the Occupy movement).

"The United States and Israel totally lack any public backing in the world," the Supreme Leader said, "and even in countries whose governments support them out of prejudice and weakness, the people many of whom are not even Muslims are opposed to them." The blatant double standard applied by the United States and the rulers of Persian Gulf states have damaged their reputation and credibility. It has also awakened the Shiite community throughout the Islamic world, asking for an end to the brutality inflicted on the Bahraini Shiite population. Moreover, it has inspired minority Shiite populations within the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) countries to stand up and demand change seen in recent clashes between Shiite residents and Saudi officials in the Eastern Region of Saudi Arabia, where the country's major oil deposits lie.

The Persian Gulf will likely continue to be of vital national interest to the United States, ensuring access to the region's vast resources. Yet, Iran will remain the most important country in the area in geopolitical, economic, and social spheres. Iran boasts the largest population in the region, over 75 million people, which is greater than the combined population of all PGCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE) plus Iraq. No matter what happens in the region, Iran will undoubtedly remain a vital player.

Unfortunately, the United States believes that the "Arab Spring" coupled with sanctions and pressures will limit Iran's stance and weaken its reach and influence in the region, accelerated by Tehran's major socioeconomic and political woes. US National Security Advisor Tom Donilon summed up Washington's view, stating that "This is a regime that offers nothing to its young burgeoning population, and which employs intimidation and violence to remain in power the same recipe for unrest that has fueled the Arab Spring . . . Iran has failed in its cynical attempts to take advantage of the Arab Spring, which, to put it mildly, has been unkind to Iran".

That assessment, however, is both shortsighted and could deprive the United States as well as Iran of opportunities to cooperate and help advance peace and progress in the Middle East.

The True Nature of the Iranian System

The United States must understand several things when it comes to Iran. First of all, Iran has a very important geostrategic location: Almost all of the greater Middle East's oil and gas resources lie either in the Persian Gulf or the Caspian Sea regions. The Persian Gulf possesses, by some accounts, 55 percent of the world's crude oil reserves and 40 percent of global oil exports, while Iran dominates over 50 percent of the whole Persian Gulf from the Iraqi border to the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Iran has about 500 kilometers of Arabian Sea frontage, and its coast of the Caspian Sea stretches for nearly 650 kilometers.

As Robert D. Kaplan's explains in his book, The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us about Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate, "Just as shipping lanes radiate from the Persian Gulf, pipelines will increasingly radiate from the Caspian region to the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, China, and the Indian Ocean. The only country that straddles both energy-producing areas is Iran, stretching as it does from the Caspian to the Persian Gulf. In a raw materials' sense, Iran is the Greater Middle East's universal joint (emphasis added).

In addition to possessing access to oil and shipping lanes, Iran has an ability to withstand international pressure and sanctions. None of the current sanctions could surpass what Iran endured during the 1980-88 war with Iraq, which in effect was a global assault on the young Islamic Republic. The coalition behind Saddam transcended Cold War politics in that both the West and the East gave military, intelligence, financial, and political backing to Saddam. The unity of the international community against Iran was so firm that the United States led the group in turning a blind eye to Saddam's use of chemical and biological weapons during the war. All this occurred within the early months following the Islamic Revolution that left the country in a weak position with limited ability to even maintain its own internal security. Yet, Iran countered the Iraqi aggression for eight years and in its aftermath had not lost any territory to the Iraqis.

Many factors have enabled Iran to resist the United States, the West, their Arab allies, and the Israelis since the 1979 revolution, and even become stronger. Beyond its vast natural resources, geostrategic location, or ability to resist sanctions, one important reality that US strategists on Iran should understand is the role of religion and clerics in political equations of Iran and the region. The most powerful ideological-political party in the world is neither the United States' Republicans nor the Democrats; nor is it the Communist Party in China nor the Russian political establishment; rather it is the Shiite Cleric Organization in Iran.

It is this lack of understanding of the religious structure that leaves Western policymakers and some of their "Iranian experts" in awe of the resilience of the Islamic Republic. The religious establishment historically has had a vast influence over the country. When an Iranian ruler during the Qajar dynasty in 1890 made the decision to grant a full monopoly of the Iranian tobacco trade to the British in return for annual royalties, the Iranian population saw this as a clear violation of their sovereignty. As a result, Grand Ayatollah Mirza Hassan Shirazi issued a Fatwa that forbid the use of tobacco as a religious duty. This ultimately forced the Shah to nullify the agreement with the British. Once nullified, Ayatollah Shirazi removed the Fatwa, permitting tobacco use once again.

In another case, popular discontent with a one-/sided oil agreement between Iran and Great Britain in the 1940s set in motion the desire for Iran to have more control over its natural resources. While the democratically-elected Prime Minister of Iran, Mohammad Mossadegh, is largely credited with championing the cause for oil nationalization, the role of the Shiite religious establishment has been largely omitted from the pages of Western history books. The turning point in the movement actually came when Ayatollah Kashani issued a Fatwa on December 21, 1950, stressing all "sincere Muslims and patriotic citizens to fight against the enemies of Islam and Iran by joining the nationalization struggle".

Within days, thousands joined Mossadegh in the streets of Tehran. Three months later, the oil industry had nationalized. Perhaps the most prime example of the power and influence of Iran's clergy establishment is the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Shah. The Shah was without a doubt the strongest US ally in the region; in December 1977, while hosting the Shah in Washington, President Jimmy Carter raised a toast and stated, "Under the Shah's brilliant leadership, Iran is an island of stability in one of the most troublesome regions of the world. There is no other state figure whom I could appreciate and like more".
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