Speaking to KhabarOnline, Royvaran commented on the current situation of Lebanon which after 15 years of civil war from 1975 to 1990 grew to become the banking center of Arab World. But today, the unrest in the neighboring country, Syria threatens the economic and political stability of Lebanon.
“Possible developments in Syria would have considerable impact on Lebanon. During the last two or three decades, Syria has been one of the key supporters of Palestinian resistance movement and it’s not clear whether the possible next regime of Syria would still back the resistance or not,” he said.
“At the moment, some Syrian opposition factions assert that if they take power, they will not help Hezbollah of Lebanon, since Hezbollah has affirmed its backing of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. It reveals that Syrian opposition groups lack a policy of principle and the regional ally of Iran and Hezbollah would be vanished,” Royvaran pointed out.
He then described the current situation of Hezbollah in Lebanon: “Hezbollah heads the political coalition called March 8 Alliance, enjoys supremacy on the political scene of Lebanon, introduced a candidate -Miqati, the incumbent Prime Minister -and holds power,” adding, “but a shift of power in Syria would give the upper hand to the opposing groups above them Salafis which would turn Lebanon into the scene of political hostility. In other words, Sunnis clash with Shiites which would endanger the coalition of Hezbollah and would downgrade the status of the Shiite faction.”
“On the other hand, the situation of Israel in relation to Syria is different from that of other Arabian countries which experienced “Islamic awakening” because in these countries Israel was a loser. But in the case of Syria, Israel is contributing to regime change, since Syria is an axis of resistance and an ally of Hezbollah against Israel. So, the collapse of Syrian regime would be in the benefit of Israel,” the analyst said.
Royvaran went on to say: “One of the main problems of Lebanon is its weakness in building a nation and the greatest political damages have been caused by the lack of national solidarity. Right now, through Lebanese Christians, the West and other international powers are attempting to establish their bases in Lebanon.”
“Then again, the Saudi Arabia and other rich Arabian countries in the Persian Gulf have strong bases in Lebanon through Sunnis and Salafis in particular. Regarding their contrasting objectives, the influence of these various powers has added fuel to the internal conflict of Lebanon,” he suggested.
“Consequently if foreign factors decide to cause unrest in that country, they will unfortunately be able to do that. In this way, Lebanon is potentially ready for political disintegration and its future depends on the extent of foreign countries’ interference in its domestic affairs,” the expert concluded.
