By: Mohammad Reza Noroozpour
World Desk Editor
Schechter as you see the Middle East situation is very eruptive again and there is very possible that one of the most important US allies in the region collapse. First of all, can we call the current events in Egypt as a revolution?
What we are seeing is still a revolt or uprising. A revolution usually has a leader or party behind it with demands and plans. We haven't seen this yet, except for demand that the government step down and do something about escalating food prices.
So if the people's demand comes true and Mubarak regime falls, will U.S and Israel accept and recognize the new government?
It probably depends on the nature of the new government but neither the US nor ISrael seem to be in the driver seat and want stability above all. Clearly they don't want an Iranian style Islamic Revolution but so far the Islamic organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood seem to be ambivalent about the mass character of the protests and have asked for the military to step in.
How is the possibility of having an Islamic government in Egypt?
It appears as if only some broader and popular government of national unity will prevail if Mubarak leaves which he has so far refused to do. The private intelligence group Stratfor is speculating just as I am since I don't claim any special sources or expertise on Egyptian affairs:
They write, "What we have to find out is who is behind this. It could be the military wanting to stage a coup to keep Gamal Mubarak out of power. They would be doing this to preserve the regime, not to overthrow it. They could be using the demonstrations to push their demands and perhaps pressure Hosni Mubarak to leave voluntarily ... It could also be the Muslim Brotherhood organizing quietly. Whoever it is, they are lying low, trying to make themselves look weaker than they are - while letting the liberals undermine the regime, generate anti-Mubarak feeling in the West, and pave the way for whatever it is they are planning."
What is the role of Mr. Elbaradei?
He is certainly becoming a factor--more as a symbol of opposition who is presumed to have international support. He is bravely calling on the international community to act--which they have yet to do. The US seems to be playing a double game, mouthing support for all sides.
How will the Egyptian revolution effect on Israel as we know how much Mubarak cooperated with them and helped them to fortify its position in Arab countries and in the region?
This is a big worry in Israel and Washington of course. Asia Times has written, "It is hard to predict what exactly will happen. Many observers remain confident that Mubarak, with the help of his well-organized security services, will weather the storm. On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described his government as "stable", even as she called for restraint and reforms.
That the Egyptian president will come out on top seems to be also the conclusion of most analysts in neighboring Israel, where the affair is attracting a lot of attention, even as the government tries to stay away for it (excessive comments can lend support to conspiracy theories about Israel's meddling in the internal affairs of Egypt).
Still, an Israeli cabinet minister commented for the Israeli Ha'aretz daily newspaper on Thursday on condition of anonymity: "[Mubarak's] regime is well-rooted in the military and security apparatus ... They will have to exercise force, power in the street and do it. But they are strong enough according to my assessment to overcome it."
Do you think the fall of Mubarak regime will strengthen the position of Hamas and the Resistance movements in the region?
I think it's too early to know. Right now it's worried about its own survival, but overall, the longer this goes on, the more resistance we can expect in the region. Up in Davos, at the World Economic Forum, experts see this conflict more in economic terms worrying that rising food prices caused by speculation in commodities can lead to GLOBAL unrest. One expert warned, "Egypt may be the first to experience this type of mass protest but it will not be the last." There has been too little attention paid in the media to the economic factors including high unemployment and how this connects to the global financial crisis.
How can U.S save Mubarak? Or in any case does she want such a thing or not?
The US is not wedded to Mubarak but they fear uncertainty and instability. They are I am sure both working to save him with advice while also backing opposition forces they consider "reliable." Opportunism is the name of the game.
Some observers say there are some things in common between the situation of Egypt and the Iranian revolution in 1979. Do you see any resemblances between them?
Of course. Everyone does. Masses in the street. Calls for Revolution against a despotic leader and etc. But there is no high profile leadership like the Ayatollah Kkomeini.
What is your expectation of the situation?
Again, please look at this in a global context. According to an American publication The Daily Beast, "The Wiki Leaks cables shed some light on the sensitive relationship between the U.S. and Egypt, as Washington grapples to figure out how to handle Egypt's ongoing turmoil. President Obama on Thursday praised Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, but cautioned that Mubarak needed to reform both politically and economically. The cables show the relationship has been fraught: U.S. diplomats had long raised concerns with Egyptian officials about jailed dissidents and bloggers and kept tabs on torture reports. At the same time, Cairo appreciated how the Obama administration had played down the public "name and shame" approach of the Bush White House.
The publication also carried a report by veteran International journalist Stephen Kinzer who criticizes US policy and says Washington sees a conflict between the US versus Iran in a bid for support for the region. He argues that in those terms, The US is losing
