According to Khabar Online, Saber Gol-Anbari, a Middle East and Arab world analyst, responded to yesterday’s attack on a Jewish holiday gathering on Sydney’s coast in a note titled “The Sydney Attack and Its Consequences!” published on his Telegram channel:
An attack by two armed assailants on a Jewish Hanukkah celebration in Sydney, Australia, has so far left 16 people dead and several others injured. At this stage, the identities of the attackers remain unclear, although some sources have claimed that one of them was a Pakistani citizen.
As with similar security incidents, the key issue is what consequences may follow. Given that Israel is, in one way or another, a party to the equation amid the region’s current sensitive conditions, the critical question is how it may seek to exploit the incident.
There is no doubt that Israel’s actions in Gaza over the past two years have generated widespread anger and resentment toward Israel across the world, which in itself could potentially create the conditions for such acts. However, it is still unclear whether this attack was merely a spontaneous, individual act or an organized operation—and if the latter, which party was behind it.
Yet even in these very early moments, before the dimensions of the incident have become clear and before Australian authorities have begun their investigations, some Israeli security sources have accused Iran of involvement. This speed in assigning blame—regardless of who is actually behind the attack—reflects an apparent intention to securitize and exploit the incident.
While such attacks may heighten anxiety among Jewish communities outside Israel, the overall consequences of the Sydney attack largely depend on the specific manner in which Israel chooses to capitalize on it.
Most likely, Tel Aviv will attempt to exploit the incident on several levels:
First, it may seek to revive its “antisemitism” narrative—one that has been significantly weakened in the past two years due to the events in Gaza and Israel’s excessive and indiscriminate use of this label to encompass virtually any criticism of Israel or Zionism in the Western world.
Second, Israel may use the incident to attack Western governments, political parties, and activists over their criticism of the Gaza war, deflecting blame onto them through a familiar pattern of scapegoating.
Third, it may attempt to leverage the attack to foster unity among Jewish communities worldwide in support of Israel—particularly at a time when the Gaza war has created visible rifts between parts of the Jewish diaspora and the Israeli state.
The fourth and potentially most serious exploitation could be security-related. The Netanyahu government may try to use the incident to intensify the security climate vis-à-vis Iran and to justify potential actions against it.
Overall, regardless of the true nature of the attack—and whether it was an individual reaction to the war in Gaza or not—given Israel’s skill in turning such incidents into political opportunities and propaganda tools, the outcome is unlikely to benefit Gaza or the Palestinian cause. On the contrary, it risks weakening their narrative while reinforcing that of the opposing side.
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