Mohammad Reza Noroozpour
Khabaronline World Desk Editor:
He is also a freelance journalist who writes regularly for the Dallas Morning News, Canadian Broadcasting Corp. Radio and National Public Radio. Erlich's book, Target Iraq: What the News Media Didn't Tell You, co-authored with Norman Solomon, also became a best seller in 2003. I translated this book and let it published in Jamejam newspaper on the following year. Now I talked to Reese about the current events in Egypt for Khabaronline. He believes Mubarak should go and it may happen very soon. However he says it is not the end for people of Egypt should not compromise on this. According to Reese Erlich, U.S. and Israel would like to see Suleiman control Egypt, but people should not let it happen.
Some analysts say we are faced with a revolution in Egypt. What is your view of the events? Can we call the current proceedings in Egypt as a revolution?
Events are moving very quickly in Egypt. As of this writing (Feb. 4), the Mubarak regime is under tremendous mass pressure. Certainly a popular uprising is underway. In my view, a revolution means the overthrow of the old system. That may happen, but has not happened yet.
If Mubarak regime falls, will U.S and Israel accept and recognize the new government?
The US is working to install a military or intelligence agency leader. If that fails, the US may be willing to accept Mohammad Elbaradei. The US administration will do everything possible to prevent the formation of a democratically chosen government that opposes US policy in the region.
So you consider Elbaradei as one of the potential choices of the people to run a new government?
I have tremendous respect for Mr. ElBaradei and had the pleasure of interviewing him once. He took a brave and principled stand against the Bush administration efforts to lie about nuclear weapons in both Iraq (under Saddam) and in Iran. But he is not well known in Egypt. We will have to see if his actions, supporting the demonstrators increase his popular support. A coalition of opposition groups has selected him as a possible transition leader. While I don't think he would be the first choice of the US, US leaders might be willing to accept him if faced with a more radical alternative.
Is it likely that an Islamic government come to power after all?
The Moslem Brotherhood did not support the initial demonstrations. It has now mobilized its forces in the streets. No one knows, however, what its real strength will be. The people will decide what kind of government they want based, in part, on political party's participation in the uprising.
How will the Egyptian revolution effect on Israel as we know how much Mubarak cooperated with them and helped them to fortify its position in Arab countries and in the region.
Israel is very nervous right now. Governments in Lebanon and Tunisia have come to power critical of Israel. Now Egypt, Jordan and Yemen face similar upheaval. Al Jazeera is reporting that Tel Aviv will allow Mubarak to flee there in exile. Luckily, for all its military power and US backing, Israel can't control the sentiments of the Arab masses. Israel's aggressive policies will be weakened by the events of the past few weeks.
Do you think the fall of Mubarak regime will strengthen the position of Hamas and the Resistance movement in the region?
If a militant government comes to power in Egypt, it will strengthen the Palestinian movement overall. At a minimum, there could be a more open border at the Rafa crossing. Hopefully, the new government will support Palestinian resistance and oppose Israeli expansion.
How can U.S save Mubarak? Or in any case does she want such a thing or not?
The US is stuck with a very big problem. Just as it supported the Shah, up until the last minute, so supported Mubarak as recently as 10 days ago. It continues to support other brutal dictators throughout the Middle East. It doesn't want to alienate the Arab masses, but will continue to do so by giving uncritical support to Israel. They may finally have to dump Mubarak but would then like to install a new pro-US strongman.
Do you see any resemblances of the Egyptian situation to Iranian revolution in 1979?
There are some similarities and some differences with 1979 Iran. In both cases, mass demonstrations reflect the widespread opposition to the existing government. But the Egyptian uprising is far more spontaneous and doesn't have an acknowledged leader. Overthrowing Mubarak isn't enough for positive change to take place. It depends on the leadership of the movements.
Some analysts say that U.S and Israel has made a deal upon Omar Suleiman as suitable successor of Mubarak. Is it true? And do you think people accept him?
I'm sure the US and Israel would like to see Suleiman control Egypt. He's a known quantity and strongly supports US/Israeli policy. He is unacceptable to the Egyptian people, however, and battles will continue if he stays in power.
Is it possible the violence increase due not accepting the leadership of Omar Suleiman by people?
The pro-Mubarak forces have proven themselves very devious. They looted the National Museum, set fires, and shot at unarmed demonstrators. They want to spread chaos and then blame the anti-government demonstrators. Suleiman is part of this violent repression.
What is your prediction? do people go back home or stand still to reach their goals as we know one of them is a total change in Mubarak regime even Omar Suleiman?
I returned my crystal ball to the manufacturer years ago. So I no longer make predictions. At the moment, the pro-democracy mass movement is carrying out a tremendous fight in the face of brutal repression. As we know, sometimes repression can work in the short run, but it can never stop a determined movement in the long run. Mubarak, like all dictators, is ultimately very weak and will eventually fall, perhaps very soon.
